By Tom Towson, CPA
Last updated: September 14, 2023
As state workforce agencies emerge from the financial stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is prudent for employers to monitor how this stress may impact their state unemployment insurance (SUI) tax rates. This regularly updated resource is intended to help provide employers insights into the condition of the SUI financing system and the potential impact to rates in 2024 and beyond.
Before addressing the condition of the SUI financing system, 2023 tax rates under the Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUTA) are top of mind for employers as well.
The U.S. Department of Labor, as of November 10, 2022, announced that California, Connecticut, Illinois, New York and the Virgin Islands had outstanding Title XII advances on January 1 for at least two consecutive years (2021 and 2022) and on November 10, 2022. As such, these jurisdictions were subject to a FUTA credit reduction for 2022. The net FUTA tax rate for 2022 increased by 50%, from 0.60% to 0.90% (the U.S. Virgin Islands had its FUTA tax credit reduced by 3.6% for an effective FUTA tax rate of 4.2%).¹
The following identifies the possible outlook for 2023 FUTA tax rates and the potential impacts of FUTA credit reductions:
Connecticut and Illinois: Connecticut and Illinois repaid all outstanding Title XII advances. Because of this action, the states should not be subject to a FUTA credit reduction for calendar year 2023, as long as the states do not borrow again and have outstanding advances as of November 10, 2023.
California and New York: If California and New York continue to have outstanding Title XII advances as of November 10, 2023, the jurisdictions will be subject to another 0.30% increase in the FUTA tax rate, from 0.90% in 2022 to 1.20% in 2023.
Virgin Islands: If the Virgin Islands continues to have an outstanding Title XII advance as of November 10, 2023, the jurisdiction will be subject to another 0.30% increase in the FUTA tax rate, from 4.20% in 2022 to 4.50% in 2023. The BCR rate has been waived during all prior years and is expected to be waived for 2023.¹
Advances to State Unemployment Funds² (Title XII of the Social Security Act)
The Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM) is a standard measure of the solvency of the SUI financing system using a primary factor, a state’s trust fund balance at a point in time. State trust funds are used to pay unemployment benefits. An AHCM multiple of 1.00 indicates a state trust fund is deemed sufficiently solvent and able to pay one year of benefits associated with an average recessionary period. As of January 1, 2023, 37 states were not considered adequately funded under this measure.³
Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM) (as of January 1, 2023)
A logical starting point for addressing the outlook for 2024 SUI tax rates is state unemployment trust fund balances, a primary factor in developing SUI tax rates.
As depicted in the following graph, net trust fund balances (trust fund balance net of federal Title XII advances) were negative $39.46 billion at the end of Q1 2011, as a result of the Great Recession, compared to negative $27.12 billion at the end of Q1 2021, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., $12.34 billion more solvent). By the end of Q1 2022, trust fund balances rebounded and were a net positive for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. With the infusion of Q1 2023 tax contributions (due April 30, 2023), net trust fund balances increased significantly by the end of Q2 2023, a positive $39.99 billion.³ There is still a long way to go before trust funds are at levels experienced just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Historical Net Trust Fund Balances
Net trust fund balances were substantially higher pre-COVID than they were pre-Great Recession. Because of this and other factors, net trust fund balances did not reach the negative levels experienced during the Great Recession.
The following graph illustrates net trust fund balances by state as of June 30, 2023.³
Net Trust Fund Balances by State (descending order by state)
As state trust funds are depleted during a period of high or increased levels of unemployment, SUI tax rates have historically increased as well. However, the correlation is not immediate. There is typically a lag between when an economic downturn impacts SUI tax rates. This is because rating calculations typically take into consideration more than just a single year of experience and look back to historical experience in the development of rates. And since rates are issued annually, a full year can pass before rates are next adjusted.
As illustrated in the below graph, as net trust fund balances began to decline in 2009 as a result of the Great Recession, the average SUI tax rate in the U.S. did not hit its peak until 2012. After that peak, average rates declined for eight consecutive years through 2020. In addition:
From 2020 to 2021, the average SUI tax rate increased from 1.72% to 1.89% (a 9.9% increase).
From 2021 to 2022, the average SUI tax rate decreased from 1.89% to 1.74% (a 7.9% decrease).
From 2022 to 2023, the average SUI tax rate is expected to be relatively flat based on Equifax preliminary data.
Correlation of Historical Average SUI Tax Rates to Net Trust Fund Balances⁴
The depletion of state trust funds can have negative implications not only to future SUI tax rates but also the amount of wages subject to those tax rates. Employers pay SUI tax on wages earned and paid to each employee within a calendar year up to a specified amount, known as the annual taxable wage base. Some states correlate annual taxable wage base adjustments to state trust fund balances.
Over the past 15 years (2009 to 2023), taxable wage bases have increased by an average of 2.8% annually.
During the height of the Great Recession (from 2008 to 2010), the two year average annual increase was 4.8%.
From 2020 to 2021, taxable wage bases increased by an average of 2.9%.
From 2021 to 2022, taxable wage bases increased by an average of 3.9%.
From 2022 to 2023, taxable wage bases increased by an average of 3.6%.
The following table provides historical taxable wage base trends.⁵
Annual SUI Taxable Wage Bases
The following contains examples of actions taken by states that could impact SUI tax rates in 2024 and beyond. These state summaries are for informational purposes only. Please see the state legislation and related materials for specific guidance.
The legislation makes numerous changes to the state's unemployment insurance law as summarized below:
New employer rate. Effective January 1, 2024, the new employer SUI tax rate is reduced from 2.9% to 1.9%.
Stabilization rate. Beginning in fiscal year 2024, the SUI tax stabilization rate is reduced from 0.2% to 0.125%.
Penalty rate. Effective January 1, 2024, the penalty rate for failure to make timely SUI tax payments is reduced from 14% to 10%.
Taxable wage base. Effective January 1, 2024, the SUI taxable wage base will be $7,000 if the unemployment trust fund balance is more than $600 million as of June 30 of the most recently completed state fiscal year.
The bill earmarks $250 million from the General Fund to the Employment Development Department (EDD) to pay towards an outstanding balance of advances under Title XII of the Social Security Act (SSA) for unemployment benefit claims during the COVID-19 pandemic. The bill also notes that the legislature intends to appropriate $500 million in the 2024 budget bill to provide relief to small businesses as result of anticipated tax rate increases due to the FUTA credit reduction.
The legislation incrementally increases Colorado's unemployment taxable wage base to $30,600 by calendar year 2026. The wage base increased to $20,400 in 2023 (from $17,000 in 2022), $23,800 in 2024, $27,200 in 2025, and $30,600 in 2026. Each year thereafter, the wage base will be adjusted by the change in average weekly earnings.
The law amends Colorado's unemployment law to extend the hold on an employer's solvency surcharge through calendar year 2023. The solvency surcharge may be reinstated in 2024.
The legislation states that in order to comply with federal unemployment law, the state is reducing employer premium rates by 10% across all rates in the standard premium rate schedule, which is offset by a corresponding increase to a new support surcharge rate. Also, the bill expands the authorized use of money in the Title XII of the Social Security Act Repayment Fund to allow the state's Unemployment Insurance Division in the Department of Labor and Employment (CDLE) to use the money for costs associated with bonds or notes issued by the division, including interest on the bonds or notes. Finally, the bill eliminates the requirement for employers to submit premium reports to the UI Division and instead requires employers to submit wage reports.
The law increases the unemployment taxable wage base from $15,000 to $25,000, beginning January 1, 2024. Each year thereafter, the wage base will be indexed for inflation. The bill also expands the range of experienced unemployment tax rates from 0.1% to 10%, beginning January 1, 2024. Other provisions that will take effect on January 1, 2024 include: not charging employers for unemployment benefits claimed through the state's shared work program during periods of high unemployment and capping the fund solvency tax at 1.0%. During a period of economic recession, the maximum solvency tax rate will be reduced to 0.5%, according to the bill. Beginning January 1, 2022, the legislation will require the Connecticut Department of Labor to adjust the benefit ratio for each employer in an industry sector (based on the North American Industry Classification System) downward by 50% of the average increase in that sector if the average benefit ratio for all employers within that sector increases over the prior calendar year's average by 0.01 or greater. In addition, the legislation temporarily changes the lookback period for determining an employer's unemployment experience rating. The lookback period has historically been three consecutive years preceding the computation date. For 2026, the lookback period will be one year. For 2027, the lookback period will be two years.
The legislation addresses the state's calendar year 2024 unemployment tax rates and continues the temporary relief provided in calendar year 2023 to employers who pay unemployment tax assessments through 2024. It also will continue to reduce new employer tax rates, and keep overall employer tax rates consistent with calendar year 2023, providing that the average employer assessment rate, the average industry assessment rate, and the average construction industry assessment rate will all be 1%. It reduces the maximum earned rate and continues the use of the temporary simplification of the tax rate schedules that are used to calculate unemployment assessments paid by employers. It additionally provides for federal pandemic funds to be used to replenish the Unemployment Trust Fund, allowing the Delaware Department of Labor to implement unemployment tax relief for an additional one-year period. It is estimated that these unemployment tax assessment changes will reduce the tax obligation of employers by an estimated $50 million. Finally, the new law restructures the supplemental assessment that is currently being collected from all employers, keeping the rate of 0.2%, but depositing it in the Special Administration Fund instead of the UI Trust Fund. Uses of the Special Administration Fund are expanded to include future technology needs of the Department.
The legislation changes how Florida’s UI tax rate is computed for rates effective 2022 through 2025.
Tax rates effective January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2025, will exclude charges from the second, third and fourth quarters of 2020 and all benefit charges paid as a direct result of a government order to close or reduce capacity of a business due to COVID-19, as determined by the Department of Economic Opportunity. The tax rate calculation will also exclude the application of the positive adjustment factor (trust fund trigger). Lastly, benefit charges from the first and second quarters of 2021 may be decreased if the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) estimates total tax collection for rate year 2022 will exceed $475.5 million. These changes to the tax rate calculation are repealed if the trust fund reaches $4,071,519,600 on June 1. On June 1, 2023, the trust fund was $2,953,834,695, per TreasuryDirect.
The new legislation required the state to make three deposits during 2021 to the UI trust fund. The funding comes from online sales tax collected from out-of-state e-commerce companies. In addition, beginning July 2022, and on or before the 25th day of each of the following months, the Florida Department of Revenue will distribute $90 million monthly to the state's UI trust fund. The Department is required to end monthly distributions when the Department of Revenue receives certification from EDR that the ending balance of the UI trust fund exceeds $4,071,519,600 or on December 31, 2025, whichever is earlier.
The bill reinstates the 0.06% administrative assessment which will be in effect for all experience rated employers. This assessment applies to the time frame of January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2026. It is set to expire as of January 1, 2027. The administrative assessment does not apply to reimbursing employers and those assigned a minimum or maximum rate. The new employer rate has been reduced to 2.64% to account for the assessment, resulting in a total rate of 2.70% for experience based employers. The total new employer rate for non-profit employers will be 2.64%.
Hawaii’s Employment Security Law, as it relates to the adequate reserve fund, has been amended. Effective for the calendar years 2023 through 2030, "adequate reserve fund" means an amount that is equal to the amount derived by multiplying the benefit cost rate that is the highest during the 10-year period ending on November 30 of each year by the total remuneration paid by all employers, with respect to all employment for which contributions are payable during the last four calendar quarters ending on June 30 of the same year, as reported on contribution reports filed on or before October 31 of the same year, but does not include the benefit cost rate from June 2020 through August 2021.
The bill establishes the Unemployment Insurance Technology Special Fund and requires an assessment. All employers are subject to a 0.01% assessment for the special fund that will be used to operate and maintain the unemployment information technology infrastructure used for the payment of benefits and contributions.
The law creates a new tax rate Schedule C (former Schedule E) which is to remain in effect through 2025. The rates range from 0.50% to 7.40%.
Iowa’s unemployment insurance tax rates for 2024 will remain unchanged from 2023. Rates will continue to be determined under Rate Table 8 in 2024 and will range from 0.0% to 7.0%. New non-construction employers will pay 1.0% and new construction employers will pay 7.0% in 2024. The taxable wage base in Iowa for 2024 will be $38,200, up $2,100 from the taxable wage of $36,100 in 2023.
The Michigan Unemployment Insurance Agency (UIA) has announced that there will be no change to the 2024 unemployment taxable wage base. The current $9,500 wage base will remain unchanged. The taxable wage base is reduced if the balance in the Michigan Unemployment Compensation Fund equals or exceeds $2.5 billion and the UIA projects the balance will remain at or above that level for the remainder of the calendar quarter and for the entire succeeding quarter. As of June 30, the trust fund balance was $2.2 billion. If the trust fund threshold met those parameters, then the taxable wage base would have been reduced to $9,000. Since it’s below $2.5 billion, employers will not see a reduction in the taxable wage base for 2024.
The new legislation provides employers more time to file unemployment tax rate and claim appeals. Currently, employers have 20 days to file an appeal. Effective May 5, 2024, employers will have up to 45 days to file an appeal.
Nebraska has amended its Employment Security Law as follows:
Voluntary contributions. Voluntary contributions now may be submitted up to and including February 28 of a particular year. They were previously due no later than January 10.
Determinations of liability or combined tax rate. A notice of a determination of liability or combined tax rate now will be promptly given to the employer by either electronic notice or by mailing a notice to the employer's last-known address or the address of a representative designated in writing by the employer. The address of record of an employer will continue to be the address of record unless it is changed by the employer. An employer that becomes subject to the Employment Security Law on or after the effective date of L.B. 191 (May 26, 2023) will designate its preferred method of contact and designated representative, if any, at the time of its initial registration. An employer may change its election at any time.
Beginning in 2024, employers will pay remuneration on the first $40,600 paid to each employee, up from $40,100 in 2023.
New Hampshire Employment Security (NHES) has released an updated set of unemployment insurance tax rates to its website for the third quarter of 2023. The net rate will remain the same at a range of 0.1% to 1.7% for positive-rated employers, and from 3.3% to 7.5% for negative-rated employers. The new employer tax rate remains 1.7%.
The bill aims to assist employers affected by COVID-19. Specifically, the bill will assign the following unemployment tax rate tables through fiscal year 2024:
Table C (rates range from 0.5% to 5.8%) for fiscal year 2022 (from July 1, 2021 through June 30, 2022);
Table D (rates range from 0.6% to 6.4%) for fiscal year 2023 (from July 1, 2022 through June 30, 2023), unless calculations call for a lesser table to be in effect; and
Table E (rates range from 1.2% to 7.0%) for fiscal year 2024 (from July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2024), unless calculations call for a lesser table to be in effect.
For the period of July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, rates are determined under Schedule E and range from 1.2% to 4.3% for positive-balance employers, with a special assigned rate of 5.4%, and from 6.1% to 7.0% for negative-balance employers, with a special assigned rate of 7.0%. New employers pay 3.4% during this period. Note that these are basic rates and do not reflect any subsidiary taxes or reductions. The taxable wage base for New Jersey is increasing from $41,100 to $42,300 for the 2024 calendar year.
New York has announced that future unemployment taxable wage bases are to increase as follows: (1) $12,500 in 2024; (2) $12,800 in 2025; and (3) $13,000 in 2026. After 2026, the wage base is permanently adjusted on January 1 of each year to 16% of the state average annual wage, rounded up to the nearest $100. The state average annual wage is established no later than May 31 of each year. The average annual wage cannot be reduced from the prior-year level.
In July of 2023, businesses across the state received Interest Assessment Surcharge (IAS) bills. IAS bill payments go toward paying down the interest on the state’s federal Title XII advances used to pay benefits to unemployed workers during the pandemic. The New York State Department of Labor is required by law to collect this payment annually from employers who make unemployment insurance contributions until the state’s debt is paid.
The IAS rate is based on the amount of federal interest due on September 30, 2023. The current rate is .18%, a reduction from last year’s rate of .23%. The IAS for employers is calculated using the wages subject to contributions for the current payroll year (the fourth quarter of 2021 through the third quarter of 2022) and multiplying those wages by the IAS rate of .18%.
The bill increases unemployment insurance penalties. Employers that fail to file contribution and wage reports on time will be subject to a $200 penalty, up from $100. The penalty for nonprofits will rise to $20 per day, up to a maximum of $200. The bill also renews the state unemployment insurance program’s technology reinvestment tax through 2027.
The legislation modifies requirements regarding the calculation and payment of unemployment insurance taxes to provide employers immediate and long-term relief. The legislation:
Provides that the experience rating used to determine an employer’s 2020 tax rate will also be used in 2022, 2023, and 2024;
Reduces fund adequacy percentages used to determine tax rate schedules; and
Extends from 10 years to 20 years the look-back period used to determine Unemployment Compensation Trust Fund solvency level and provides that 2020 and 2021 are not included in the 20-year look-back period.
New legislation signed on February 1, 2023, will cut employer contributions to unemployment by 0.5%. Specifically, the legislation creates a new tax schedule when the balance in the Unemployment Trust Fund at the end of the fiscal year is at or above an average high-cost multiplier (AHCM) of 1.5. An AHCM of 1.0 means enough funds exist to cover a full year of benefits during a recession. Currently, employer tax rates are based on the AHCM of the fund at the end of each fiscal year. Additionally, the bill adjusts the trigger point for a surcharge – this is an additional tax imposed when the balance of the fund drops below $11 million. The surcharge trigger will no longer be tied to a dollar amount, but to an AHCM ratio. Through December 31, 2023, Schedule A (rates range to 9.45%) is in effect when the AHCM is less than 1.60 and Schedule B (rates range to 9.3%) is in effect when the AHCM is greater or equal to 1.60.
Beginning January 1, 2024, Schedule A (rates range to 9.45%) is in effect when the AHCM is less than 1.60 and Schedule B (rates range to 9.3%) is in effect when the AHCM is less than 1.5 and greater or equal to 1.3, and Schedule C (rates range to 8.80%) is in effect when the AHCM is greater or equal to 1.5.
By February 1 of each year, the Department must report to the state legislature the UI trust fund balance as of the prior December 31, for purposes of determining the SUI taxable wage base for the calendar year. If the UI trust fund balance on December 31 of any year is less than $900 million, the taxable wage base is $9,000. If the trust fund balance is above $900 million, but less than $1 billion on December 31, the taxable wage base is $8,000. If the trust fund balance exceeds $1 billion on December 31, the taxable wage base is $7,000.
Effective July 1, 2023 through December 31, 2023, Premium Rate Table 6 remains in effect. Employer rates range from 0.01% to 2.3% for positive-balance employers and from 5.0% to 10.0% for negative-balance employers. For the period beginning July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2024, the new employer rate in Tennessee for contributory employers remains at 2.7%. The taxable wage base for unemployment remains $7,000.
The bill sets limits on the social contribution rate and reserve factor for the next three years. For calendar year 2022 only, if the calculation of the social contribution rate under Subsection (2)(a) is greater than 0.003, the social contribution rate for that calendar year is 0.003. For calendar years 2023 and 2024 only, if the calculation of the social contribution rate under Subsection (2)(a) is greater than 0.004, the social contribution rate for that calendar year is 0.004. For calendar year 2022 only, the division may not set the reserve factor to be more than 1.1500; and for calendar years 2023 and 2024 only, the division may not set the reserve factor to be more than 1.2000.
The Vermont 2024 Unemployment Rate Notices were released on June 27, 2023. The rate schedule remained Schedule I, and the ratios changed, rates range from 0.40% to 5.40%. Benefits charged and taxable payroll for calendar year 2020 have been removed from the rate calculation by the state. New employers pay 1.0%, while new out-of-state employers in certain industries pay as follows: 2.0% for employers involved in the construction of buildings; 4.1% for employers involved in heavy and civil engineering construction; and 2.8% for specialty trade contractors. The taxable wage base continues at $13,500 for the third and fourth quarters of 2023 and is estimated to remain $13,500 effective January 1, 2024. However, it could change and notification will be at a later date.
The bill (amending Title 24, chapter 12, sections 302 and 308 of the Virgin Islands Code) replaces the reserve ratio experience rating methodology with a payroll variation methodology to determine employer unemployment Insurance tax rates beginning January 1, 2024. With the new methodology, employers’ tax rates will be based on changes in payroll for the preceding twelve quarters. As an employer's payroll increases, the tax rate would be lowered, and the converse for employers that have decreasing payrolls.
The legislation has a number of provisions designed to provide unemployment tax relief to employers. The legislation sets the maximum social tax as follows: (1) 0.50% for 2021; (2) 0.75% for 2022; (3) 0.80% for 2023; (4) 0.85% for 2024; and (5) 0.90% for 2025 and suspends the solvency surcharge for 2021 to 2025. From February 8, 2021 until May 31, 2026, the 10% Voluntary Contribution Program (VCP) surcharge is not charged and the VCP payment deadline is extended to March 31. The minimum amount of a voluntary contribution must result in a recomputed benefit ratio at least two rate classes lower than the original rate class; and only employers who have moved up at least eight rate classes may use the program.
Beginning in 2024, employers will pay remuneration on the first $68,500 paid to each employee, up from $67,600 in 2023.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a depletion of state unemployment trust funds used to pay unemployment benefits, prompting many states to take action to mitigate potential increases in tax rates. After eight years of declining SUI tax rates (on average), there was a slight spike in 2021, then a leveling off in 2022 and 2023. While it is prudent for employers to be aware of the direction of SUI tax rates using indicators like state unemployment trust fund balance trends, state legislative initiatives, and overall economic conditions (all considered to be “uncontrollable factors”), it continues to be important for employers to take their own actions (“controllable factors”) to help keep SUI tax rates and associated costs as low as possible by:
Diligently adjudicating unemployment claims
Auditing benefit charges and timely appealing those that appear improper
Ensuring all quarterly contribution and wage reports are filed timely
Identifying and reconciling any outstanding liabilities on state unemployment accounts
Utilizing available state-specific rating strategies to help lower SUI tax rates (e.g., voluntary contributions, joint account formation, negative write-off payments, payroll variation elections, etc.
To keep up-to-date, please visit our Employer Unemployment Insurance Resource Center. The site includes a 2024 Tax Guide intended to assist employers in identifying potential risks associated with increases in SUI tax costs from 2023 to 2024 (e.g., changes in minimum and maximum SUI tax rates, changes in wage bases, etc.).
Please reach out to your Equifax representative to help address potential risks associated with the current unemployment landscape. Not a current client? Please feel free to contact our Employment Tax Consulting Group with any questions.
Per the FUTA Credit Reduction site published by the United States Department of Labor (“DOL”) Employment & Training Administration.
Per data obtained from FiscalData (an official website jointly created by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Bureau of the Fiscal Service).
Per U.S. DOL, SUI Trust Fund Solvency Report for 2023 (issued March 2023). The Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM is measured as the Reserve Ratio (Trust Fund as a % of Total Wages) at the end of the calendar year immediately preceding the report year, divided by the Average High Cost Rate. The Average High Cost Rate is the average of the three highest calendar year benefit cost rates in the last 20 years (or a period including three recessions, if longer).
Per respective Unemployment Insurance Data Summary reports published by the U.S. Department of Labor and data obtained from FiscalData, TreasuryDirect (an official website of the U.S. Department of Treasury), and Average Employer Contribution Rates by State.
Information obtained from sources considered to be reliable (e.g., state legislative changes, state workforce agency announcements, state surveys, etc.).
The information provided is intended as general guidance and is not intended to convey any tax, benefits, or legal advice. For information pertaining to your company and its specific facts and needs, please consult your own tax advisor or legal counsel. Equifax Workforce Solutions provides services that can help employers reduce their compliance risks. Details on our provision of these services and related support will be contained in your services agreement. Links to sources may be to third party sites. We have no control over and assume no responsibility for the content, privacy policies or practices of any third party sites or services.